NE Prep: Elite 8 Preview

After a lot of number crunching we have arrived at the 24 teams whose season continues with championship hopes intact. We will dissect each upcoming matchup, who is playing who, history, key matchups and predictions. 

We’ll start breaking down the Elite 8. Credit to Holderness School for making their first Elite 8 appearance in the history of the program. Also worth noting an impressive turn around by Belmont Hill led by head coach Brian Phinney who has turned Belmont Hill from having a 32-42-11 record in the previous three seasons to a home ice seed in the Elite 8 in his first year as head coach. Lastly, an impressive run by mainstay programs who continue to make the Elite 8 i.e Salisbruy, KUA, Dexter and Avon Old Farms. Especially for KUA and Salisbury who have accounted for 7 of the last 8 Elite 8 Championships.

#8 Holderness @ #1 Kimball Union

History:  KUA 2-0 against Holderness this season

KUA and Holderness met in the finals of the Lakes Region Championship with KUA getting the 4-1 win. The last time these two have met in a meaningful title match was in 2012 in the Small School Championships where KUA won in overtime. Northeastern Assistant Mike Levine was the coach for KUA and Portsmouth Abbey’s Allie Skelley the coach for Holderness. Both teams had several NCAA D1 and even some pros to name a few Doyle Somerby (KUA/BU), Gavin Bayreuther (Holderness/SLU), Nick Roberto (KUA/BU), John McLeod (KUA/BU) and Terrance Amorosa (Holderness/Clarkson).

Records Against Elite 8 Competition:  KUA:  4-1-0     Holderness 0-2-0

Matchup: There are no secrets in this game; Holderness played them twice this year, both times in KUA’s barn and walked away with losses. The first game was the closer of the two and despite being outshot the Bulls had chances to win in overtime. The most recent game was a bit different, KUA came out and stepped on the gas right away showing their size and depth advantage and Holderness did whatever they could just to hold on at times. The Wildcats have won 17 of their last 18 games while Holderness has gone 12-2-3 in their last 17 games. 

KUA Advantage:  KUA is a bigger team, more dynamic offensively, stronger defensively, they are deeper top to bottom and will have a significant advantage on special teams.

Holderess Advantage: Holderness has had better goaltending this year and have enough team speed to skate with KUA stride for stride.

Key Players: KUA has arguably the deepest team in prep hockey and it starts on the blue line with Connor Chalmers, Duncan Ramsay, Bobby May and Kareem Alazem. Up front they have five forwards averaging over a point per game not including Matt Maltais who has been out for big chunk of the year. The offense is led by Jaiden Moriello, Revvy Mack, Tyler Wishart and Jaiden Moriello.  For Holderness the team is not quite as deep but they too have 5 forwards who are averaging at leas a point per game. They are led by standouts Dave Brandes on the backend and forwards Nick Messina, Cooper Boulanger and Sean Senier. Both teams goalies are coming off very strong seasons; Holdernes’ Plunkett averaging just under 95% save percentage while KUA netminder Dan Heroux is at .928.

Prediction: The old saying that it is hard to beat a team three times in one season is true and for most any other coach this could be a trap game but Tim Whitehead always has his team ready to go and is rarely upset in playoffs. KUA has an impressive 4-1-0 record against the best teams in the league and despite the familiarity between these two squads, KUA has risen to nearly every challenge this season. Our prediction is that it’s close for the first half of the game and then KUA starts to pull away late with their depth and advances to the semi-finals.

#7 Cushing  @  #2 Avon Old Farms

History: Have not played this season

These two prep heavyweights have had a long history despite rarely playing one another in the regular season. Cushing is one of the premier programs in Massachusetts while Avon is one of the premier programs in Connecticut. In recent history the teams faced off against one another in the Large School Tournament Championship in 2013 with Cushing earning the 1-0 victory. Prior to that Avon had defeated Cushing in the New England Championship (what would now be the Elite 8 Finals) 3-0. Avon won back to back finals behind NHL netminder Jon Quick who let in just one goal through the playoff rounds that year and earned the win over Cushing goalie Richard Bachman who also had a long professional career. 

Record against Elite 8 Competition:  Avon Old Farms: 0-1-0     Cushing: 2-3-0

Matchup: While these teams haven’t met head to head, they have played some common opponents both losing to Salisbury, both beating Loomis (although Avon also lost to Loomis) and both beating up on Canterbury. However, Avon certainly holds the better resume not just with total wins but quality wins and only having lost 3 games the entire season. Their consistency has been as impressive as their results. Cushing on the other hand has been as good as anyone on their best days, for example, beating KUA 2-1 and outshooting them in the process. However, just four days later they lost to a sub .500 New Hampton team. Cushing will need to be at their very best to beat an Avon team that is fast and deep up front as there is in prep hockey and very consistent in net. Avon on the other hand hasn’t had an easy schedule by any means with an impressive 9-3-0 against playoff teams, but they have only faced one team this season in the Elite 8 so they don’t have as much experience against the very top teams.

Avon Advantage:  Avon has more team speed, more high end talent, especially on offense and better special teams. Their defensive core isn’t as big but they are superior skaters and puck movers.

Cushing Advantage: Cushing is bigger and tougher to play against and they have more experience against top ranked teams. Avon may be more consistent between the pipes but Cushing netminder Jackson Iriving can steal a game and has several times this season.

Key Players: This game is loaded with prospects; to start for Avon they have the best duo in prep hockey in Brennan Ali and Matt DiMarsico. They are complemented with speedy forwards Joe Connor and Nick Capasso and have a talented D-core led by Seth Robinson and Sam Court. In net Connor Callaghan has been one of the best goalies in all of prep hockey and arguably the most consistent. Cushing is led by Billy Norcross who has been one of the best all-around forwards in the league and he’s complimented by Ethan Gardula, power forward Mason Kesselring and slick, speedy sophomore Landan Resendes. In net Jackson Irving has been key to their success and, at times, has had to put the team on his shoulders to win games. 

Prediction: Avon’s team speed could be a difficult matchup for Cushing’s defense, not to mention players like Ali and DiMarsico who can break a game wide open. With that being said Cushing’s best comparison this year in terms of style of play would be Salisbury who gave Avon’s defense fits with their size, strength and compete level. Cushing has a chance if Iriving stands on his head and they can slow down the Winged Beavers but our money is on Avon as they have too many weapons to be denied and a goalie who can bail them out if they find themselves in trouble. 

#6 St. Sebastian’s  @ #3 Belmont Hill

History: Belmont Hill is 1-0-1 against St. Sebastian’s this season

Belmont Hill and St. Sebastian’s have a long distinguished history as two day schools in the Boston area who compete in the ISL. Both teams have an impressive history deep with NCAA D1 and NHL alumni and both had strong teams in the early 2000’s but haven’t been a factor in the Elite 8 since. St. Sebastain’s won two prep championships with Brian Boyle in 2001 and 2002 and Belmont Hill made it to the finals against Avon but lost 3-0 in 2004. St. Seb’s did make it to the Large School finals losing in overtime to Berkshire in 2012 and Belmont Hill made it to the Large School finals in 2014 but lost to Brooks 4-2.

Record Against Elite 8 Competition:  Belmont Hill: 1-0-1     St. Sebastian’s 0-1-1

Matchup: Outside of playing one another, these teams have not faced another Elite 8 team. They both have 18 wins but Belmont Hill has the more impressive resume with a 7-1-3 record against playoff teams while St. Sebastian’s is 7-4-1. With that being said these two teams have already played twice and they were both close games; first game was a tie and second game went into overtime with Belmont Hill scoring late. With that being said Belmont Hill outshot the Arrows by nearly a 2:1 margin in their last meeting so it may not have been as close of a game as it looked. This game comes down to contrasting styles; Belmont Hill is at their best when they play from the goal out; they have played 17 games this season allowing just 1 goal against or less and won 16 of those games with the sole loss coming in overtime to Tabor. The only knock you can give Belmont Hill is that their two lossses happened in the final weeks of the season and they head into the playoffs 1-2-1 in their last 4 games. St. Sebastian’s on the other hand hasn’t been quite as consistent as Belmont Hill but they have shown an ability to score goals in bunches and have outscored Belmont Hill by 30 goals this season.

Belmont Hill Advantage: Belmont Hill has one of the leagues best goaltenders in Sam Scopa, they are bigger and older than St. Sebastian’s and play with more structure and discipline. 

St. Sebastian’s Advantage: St. Sebastian’s has more firepower upfront not only in talent but in depth and they have several skilled defenseman who make them more dangerous in the special teams game. 

Key Players: Belmont Hill is lead by juniors Ronan O’Donnell and James Fisher on the offense as well as dynamic playmaker Teddy Stiga, a true freshman. On the backend they have great size and athleticism led by junior Matthew Biotti. For St. Sebastian’s they have as good a top line as there is in prep hockey with Brendan Gorman, Jayden Grier and Michael Callow. They too have a young true freshman in ’07 Teddy Mutryn who has been playing lights out in the second half of the year. On the backend they have one of prep schools finest defenseman in Nolan Joyce as well as Aidan Connors and swiss army knife Will Elias. In net St. Sebastain’s has athletic senior Ryan Kouzmouz and Belmont Hill has one of the top goalies in the league in sophomore Sam Scopa.

Prediction: Belmont Hill has been the better team all-season, not just head to head but against common opponents. In the playoffs you typically go with goaltending, structure and consistency which Belmont Hill gets the nod in all three categories; however, we are a little worried about their play down the stretch losing two games in overtime in the final weeks of the season and lacking a killer instinct. St. Sebastian’s wins this game in an upset even though we believe if they played 10 times Belmont Hill wins 7 of them. 

#5 Salisbury @ #4 Dexter

History: Have not played this season

There is a lot of great history between these two programs. The Elite 8 is named after longtime prep coach Matt Corkery of Salisbury School; he was responsible for hiring Dan Donato who brought Salisbury their first Elite 8 title in 2006. Corkery was then responsible for hiring his replacement Andrew Will after Donato decided to move back home and take over at Dexter. Andrew Will would then go on to win ‘09, ‘13, ‘14, ‘15 and ‘20. Salisbury would win two of those prep championships beating Dexter in the finals and one of them beating them in the semi-finals; so Dexter will have no shortage of motivation in this matchup. 

Record Against Elite 8 Competition:  Dexter  2-1-0    Salisbury  2-1-0

Matchup: These are two of the hottest teams in prep hockey, Salisbury has lost just one game in 2022 which was in overtime against Kent and Dexter is 11-1-1 down the stretch. Dexter is a different team than they have been in year’s past, they aren’t as top heavy or reliant on a few keu players to win them games and overall are bigger and harder to play against. Salisbury is similar in style of play to what they always are but they too are more spread out and getting contributions up and down the lineup. Both teams have had bad stretches this season and learned from it and moved on and both teams have winning records against Elite 8 Competition as well as playoff bound teams; Dexter is 6-3-4 while Salisbury is 8-5-0.

Salisbury Advantage: The Knights have more depth than Dexter on offense, they are stronger and tougher to play against and have better goaltending. 

Dexter Advantage: Dexter has a deeper blue line than Salisbury, they are older and more experienced as they have several returners from the 19-20 team while Salisbury has just two. 

Key Players: Salisbury is deep offensively but their top players this season have been skilled, speedy playmaker Dylan Hryckowian, 200ft forward Ryan Walsh, slick, strong forward Lee Parks and high IQ, skilled sophomore Ben Poitras. On the backend they have great size and toughness but they are led by their smallest player in nifty puck mover Alex Zakrzewski. Between the pipes they have a Austin McNicholas who, at his best, is as good as any goalie in the league. For Dexter, they have a dominant first line in William Hughes, Culin Wilson and Grayson Badger and on the backend two very different but highly productive defenders in Matt Fusco and Sean Keohane. Fusco is the more offensive minded type while Keohane is big, physical, reliable defensively and can also chip in at the offensive end.

Prediction: Having covered all the recent playoff games between these two teams; in none of those games did we give Dexter much of a chance given the size and strength of Salisbury and their overall balance. Dexter may have been spectacular in one or two areas with superstars like Ryan Donato (Minnesota Wild) and Jack Rathbone (Vancouver Canucks) but didn’t have the size or the depth. The same can’t be said this time around; Dexter is bigger this year, they are older, they are stronger on pucks and tougher overall to play against. This won’t be the same kind of Dexter vs. Salisbury matchup. With that being said, it’s not wise to bet against Salisbury and Andrew Will this time of year and their win against Avon might be the best win we’ve seen this season. It’s going to be close and might even need more than regulation time to decide this outcome but we think Salisbury moves onto the semi-finals.

Photo Credit: Dan Hickling / Hickling Images