Star Ratings and Player Rankings

Star Rating / Rankings

Neutral Zone has created an exclusive, proven star rating system which ranks prospects on a 1-5 scale in increments of 0.25. For a prospect to be given a star rating they must be seen by at least two scouts; a regional scout and a Head Scout or Scouting Director.

The star rating reflects how that prospect compares to other players in his/her birth year. The analytics below show the last three years of star rating data.

NCAA Prospects (2015-2018)

Star Rating     D1       D3     Other   
5.0 100% 0.0% 0.0%
4.75 100% 0.0% 0.0%
4.5 100% 0.0% 0.0%
4.25 100% 0.0% 0.0%
4.0 99.2% 0.0% 0.80%
3.75 97.66% 0.0% 2.34%
3.5 88.14% 2.28% 9.58%
3.25 9.98% 69.65% 20.37%
3.0 0.97% 87.78% 11.25%
2.75 0.0% 97.77% 2.23%
2.5 0.0% 78.32% 21.68%
2.25 0.0% 72.24% 27.76%
2.0 0.0% 67.11% 32.89%

The NCAA prospect data shows that 100% of all players ranked 4.25 star or higher go NCAA D1. 99.20% of 4 stars go D1, 97.66% of 3.75-star prospects go D1 and 88.14% of 3.5-star prospects go D1. Then there is a major drop off at 3.25 stars where less than 10% go D1 and after that it’s less than 1%.  

These ratings give NCAA prospects and coaches an accurate indication of where the players stand. The star ratings will change throughout a player’s amateur career as players develop at different rates; but overall this is a useful tool to compare and analyze prospects.

 

CHL Draft Prospects (2016-2018)

Star Rating 1st Rd 2nd Rd 3rd Rd 4-5th Rd 6-7th Rd 8-9th Rd 10th Rd+
5.0 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4.75 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4.5 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4.25 91.22% 8.88% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4.0 2.13% 90.4% 6.43% 1.04% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3.75 0.89% 7.72% 57.12% 27.33% 6.94% 0.00% 0.00%
3.5 0.0% 1.17% 8.03% 71.86% 15.48% 3.26% 0.20%
3.25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.79% 51.19% 24.42% 7.60%
3.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.17% 46.69% 31.14%
2.75 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.41% 71.70%
2.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.21%
2.25 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.18%
2.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The CHL Draft data is similar to the NCAA data in that it shows the 4.25 stars and above are almost entirely first round draft picks; 4.0-star prospects are almost entirely second round picks and 3.75 and 3.5 are mostly picks between 3-5th round. Players 3.25 star rated and below are late round picks and players 2.5 rated and below are rarely even drafted at all.

How Star Ratings are Formalized:

Weight of Star Rating

20% Historical Performance – how the player has performed 3 months prior and previous seasons

60% Current Performance – how has this player played the last 3 months

20% Projection – Translatable skills to be ready to play at the next level

Projection Based Star Rating

5 -Star – First Round NHL Draft Pick / Elite NCAA/CHL prospect

4.5- Star – Full Scholarship D1/ 1st Rnd CHL who makes immediate impact at NCAA/CHL level 

4.0- Star – Scholarship D1/ 2-3 Rnd CHL Draft player who will play as a freshman/rookie

3.5 Star – Solid D1/Mid Round CHL Draft player who will contribute but may take some time

3.0 Star – High End D3 prospect or Low Round CHL Pick who could develop but missing areas in his game