News broke yesterday from Dubuque, IA that the Fighting Saints (USHL) signed Liam Kilfoil (Salisbury School), a skilled forward out of New Brunswick to a tender. In the junior world this means he’s committing to play at Dubuque next season and Dubuque is committing a roster spot to him. While it is not uncommon for Canadiens to go south as many of the greatest NCAA players of all-time were Canadian with the likes of Paul Kariya, Martin St. Louis, Rob Blake, Ken Dryden, Rod Brind’Amour and Jonathan Toews. However, several of these prospects were late developers who didn’t find their stride until their late teens and early twenties. The difference today is that five-star Canadian prospects like Owen Power, Macklin Celebrini and Adam Fantilli are choosing the NCAA route at 15 and 16 years old.
So far this season, the USHL has signed three high profile prospects out of Canada; #2 ranked QMJHL draft prospect Zachary Morin (Little Caesars U15), #7 ranked QMJHL Draft prospect Liam Kilfoil (Salisbury School) and #27 OHL Draft prospect Lev Katzin (Toronto Marlboros U16). This doesn’t include two dual-citizens William Moore (#3 ranked OHL Draft prospect) and Lane Sim (#39 ranked OHL Draft prospect) who are both highly touted prospects on both sides of the border.
Last year, Quebec and Ontario saw top five ranked prospects sign tenders in the USHL and commit to US Colleges; Sacha Boisvert (Muskegon/North Dakota) and Michael Hage (Chicago Steel/Michigan). The biggest loss for the CHL was Macklin Celebrini, the #1 ranked prospect in North America and the only 5-star rated prospect in the ‘06 birth year to date. He signed with Chicago Steel and is verbally committed to Boston University.
That doesn’t include the #1 and #2 picks in last year’s USHL Futures Draft in Reid Varkonyi, and Matthew Frost, both come from Western Canada. Also, Finn McLaughlin out of Alberta, who played with Windy City Storm last season, went in the second round of the USHL Draft to Youngstown and verbally committed to Denver. Also, Warman, SK native Carsten Kayter went in the second round to Omaha Lancers and verbally committed to Nebraska-Omaha.
As we see the tenders roll in it’s important to put add perspective that not only is it March and there is a lot of time before the start of next season but also we’ve signing the tender doesn’t guarantee they’ll even play a game. Carson Rehkopf was signed to Muskegon (USHL) but ended up going to Kitchener (OHL). Some players like Zachary Bolduc may play some games but soon-after signed with the QMJHL. Just like making the NTDP U17 team doesn’t guarantee they’ll be back for the 18’s. We’ve seen Gilmartin and Saganiuk leave for Erie in the OHL and just last year Grayson Sawchyn left NTDP for Seattle in the WHL. This isn’t a new theme either; we can remember when it was a big deal that Michael Vukojevic was selected 8th overall by Green Bay (USHL) in 2017. He played a dozen games in the USHL before going to Kitchener in the OHL. With that being said, there are major changes in the landscape in the past 3-5 years. Fantilli going to a New Hampshire prep school in his OHL Draft year as the consensus #1 in the OHL Draft; Jack Hughes, another consensus #1 pick in the OHL Draft playing for the Marlies going to NTDP instead of the OHL; Sacha Boisvert leaving Quebec to go to Rhode Island to then sign a tender in Michigan and commit to North Dakota. These are not trends we saw 10 years ago; in fact, Ontario was shocked when Owen Power signed in Chicago (USHL) five years ago but just last year when Michael Hage did the same thing to the same team it wasn’t even a suprise. It’s gone from unheard of to somewhat common.
This trend however is not a one-way street as several top US prospects have signed in the CHL in recent years as well. Kitchener (OHL) is a prime exampe; Roman Schmidt and Hunter Brzustewicz both played on the US National Development program and then went the OHL route and Simon Motew is an American who played for Chicago Mission and went straight into the OHL. In fact; two of the top five scorers in the OHL are US players, Ty Voit (Pennsylvannia) and Sacha Pastujov (Michigan) and three more in the Top 30 in Avery Hayes (Michigan), Gavin Hayes (Chicago Blackhawks draft pick) and a projected top 50 NHL Draft pick this year in Quinten Musty (New York).
However, looking at the QMJHL and the WHL; they haven’t had the same success with far fewer Americans signing with their teams while the NCAA and USHL have takent several of their top prospects (Cale Makar, Sacha Boisvert, Macklin Celebrini, etc).
The question then becomes why? The CHL isn’t seeing a sharp decline in developing NHL talent and still reigns supreme as the biggest feeder system to the NHL in the world. NHL Central Scouting is projecting roughly 13 players from the CHL going in the first round of this year’s draft; last year the CHL had six of the top 12 selections; the year prior seven of the top 17 picks. So the leagues status and competition doesn’t seem to be the problem.
Could it be the Cale Makar impact? Most Western Canadians had never heard of UMass Amherst before Cale Makar went there and now he’s arguably the best defenseman in the game today. He went the AJHL to NCAA route instead of signing in the WHL and went top 10 in the NHL Draft before going on to win an NCAA National Championship, Hobey Baker Award winner, NHL Stanley Cup Champion, Norris Trophy and Conn Smythe winner. The next best Canadian defensive prospect was likely #1 overall pick Owen Power from Ontario who went USHL to NCAA route as opposed to the OHL. That same draft class we saw #5 overall Kent Johnson from British Columbia go the BCHL to the NCAA route instead of signing in the WHL. The 2022 NHL Draft didn’t have that kind of first round Canadian prospects playing south but they did have two second rounders out of Alberta in Reiger Lorenz, of the AJHL who is now a freshman at Denver, as well as Dylan James, out of the USHL who is now a freshman at North Dakota.
In this year’s NHL Draft there will be Adam Fantilli going somewhere between #2 and #5 overall depending on who you ask and he’s an Ontario native who went the US Prep to USHL to NCAA route. This year however should somewhat offset each other with Quinten Musty and Hunter Brzustewicz as Americans playing in the CHL and likely drafted in the 20-50 range. Canada has Fantilli and Matthew Wood playing in the NCAA who are projected in the top half of the first round so it’s not entirely even but atleast not one-way.
We asked around to GM’s in both the USHL and CHL to share their thoughts on these trends and both sides are well aware of this recent reality. One thing that seemed to come up was the impact of the CAA agency; the largest agency in the NHL and attracts many of the games top players as well as top prospects. In recent years several high profile CAA Canadian clients have gone to the USHL and then NCAA; in particular Chicago Steel and University of Michigan seem to be common landing spots. That accounts for some of this particularly in Ontario but if we look at this year’s three USHL tenders all three are represented by different agencies.
Another contributing factor that was mentioned among both USHL and CHL brass was the increase in Canadians coming to the US in their bantam, minor midget or Prep/HS years. Several CHL teams noted that having a major impact on these players ultimately choosing the NCAA route. Macklin Celebrini for example went to Shattuck St. Mary’s in Minnesota before going to Chicago Steel; Adam Fantilli went to Kimball Union Prep in New Hampshire before going to Chicago Steel, Sacha Boisvert went to Mount St. Charles in Rhode Island before going to Muskegon and the #1 pick in the USHL Draft last year Matthew Frost played at South Kent School in Connecticut. Of this year’s crop of USHL Tenders from Canada we see that two of them are currently playing in the States; Kilfoil with Salisbury School in Connecticut and Morin with Little Caesar’s in Michigan. WIth that being said, that streak is also not one-way as Zachary Bolduc played at Mount St. Charles – signed tender in the USHL but quickly returned to the QMJHL; Billy Zonnon played for Northwood School in Lake Placid, NY and returned to the QMJHL and #19 overall in the WHL Draft Aaron Obobaifo who signed with Vancouver Gaints in the WHL plays at Shattuck St. Mary’s in Minnesota. Jack Hughes would be the opposite example of a player who played minor hockey in Ontario and then went the US NTDP route and his brothers NTDP to NCAA route at Michigan. Kaden Muir did the same thing going from Toronto Marlboros to NTDP and Stephen Halliday from Toronto Marlboros to the #1 pick in the USHL Draft to Ohio State..
All high-end players in North America come across this question – NCAA or CHL route and there is no definitive right or wrong path. Each situation is different for each player and even after looking at some of the trends in recent years you can’t point to one specific reason or cause and effect. In one conversation with a Western league GM he said he thinks the US National team has a major impact in their funding and development capabilities and pointed at EJ Emery this past season who would likely be flourishing in the WHL but ultimately decided to go the NTDP route. However, the very next call we talked to an OHL GM who explained that their league is getting more and more players from the NTDP route from Brzustewicz to Pastujov to Gilmartin to Saganiuk. Gilmartin and Saganiuk are both on Erie Otters joined by another dual-citizen in Carey Terrance who grew up playing minor hockey in the US but signed directly with Erie and avoided the NTDP/USHL route all together.
The point is; there is a lot of conflicting rationale as to why more higher profile Canadian prospacts going the NCAA route. One USHL GM remarked that the longer development path in the Junior and NCAA system allows for prospects to enter college at 21 and play college until age 25 before having to make the leap to pro hockey whereas CHL is over at 21. Sure that is true but how many high profile draft picks are in the NCAA at age 21 let alone 25? Almost zero, so that doesn’t really factor into the players we are talking about in this particular report.
It’s too early in the process to know where Zachary Morin, Lev Katzin and Liam Kilfoil will ultimately end up and there will likely be more in the coming months with CHL Drafts and USHL Draft around the corner. What path will William Moore decide; one of the most coveted prospects in North America? Are there some top echelon US players that will sign with CHL teams this spring like we saw with AJ Spellacy from Cleveland Barons last year, a highly touted football recruit, signing with Windsor Spitfires in the OHL? Time will tell and in the meantime we’ll do what we always do, keep track of the data and the trends in our CHL Signings and NCAA Commitment pages.
